Map of Proposed Kakaako Developments

Last week I posted the Hawaii Community Development Authority’s updated list of project activity in the Kaka’ako Community Development District (KCDD).

A PDF copy of the list can be downloaded here (Current Kakaako Project Activity).

The following link takes you to an interactive map of the projects:

http://www.bing.com/maps/?v=2&cp=21.297974~-157.851878&lvl=16&sty=r&cid=8C28EB42E686E6E1!336

The map below can be saved as a png file:

Map of Proposed Kakaako Developments

Map of Proposed Kakaako Developments

Please read my disclaimer.

Maui Million Dollar Home Sales ($1.0M+) – Day 6 of 10 – “How much land do they have?”

From January 1, 2012 through September 16, 2013, a total of 231 “million dollar plus” homes sold in Maui County, generating total volume in excess of $525 million.  There are many ways that Hawaii real estate appraisers analyze sales statistics for luxury homes.  Because a proper market study for this segment would run many pages, I am posting one article per day for ten days.

Day 6 of 10 – Maui Million Dollar ($1.0M+) Single Family Homes By Land Area

Consider the following graph, which categorizes the Maui million dollar home sales by their lot sizes:

Maui Million Dollar Home Sales By Land Area

Maui Million Dollar Home Sales By Land Area

If you are unfamiliar with the luxury home market in Hawaii, the data presented on this graph might be counter-intuitive.  As  shown, most million dollar home sales are on lots that are smaller than half an acre in size, and only a handful of transactions are on tracts larger than ten acres.

Bottom Line: Once Again, Bigger Isn’t Necessarily Better

Not many people would argue that, all things being equal, more land area is usually better.  But on Maui and throughout the Hawaii high-end residential sector, an experienced real estate appraiser understands that beach frontage and ocean views are the primary drivers of market value.  Since near-ocean properties are typically subdivided into smaller land area configurations, it is easy to see how the most common high-dollar sales have smaller lots.

Questions or comments?  Please leave them in the comment  box below, I would be happy to clarify and/or expand.

Aloha, Chris

Maui Million Dollar Home Sales ($1.0M+) – Day 5 of 10 – Price Per Square Foot

From January 1, 2012 through September 16, 2013, a total of 231 “million dollar plus” homes sold in Maui County, generating total volume in excess of $525 million.  There are many ways that Hawaii real estate appraisers analyze sales statistics for luxury homes.  Because a proper market study for this segment would run many pages, I am posting one article per day for ten days.

Day 5 of 10 – Maui Million Dollar ($1.0M+) Single Family Homes By Price Per Square Foot Of Living Area

Consider the following graph and chart, which measures each of the million dollar sales divided by their respective living areas in square feet:

Maui Million Dollar Sales By Price Re Square Foot

Maui Million Dollar Sales By Price Per Square Foot

 

Island of Maui Million Dollar Single Family Homes By Price Per Square Foot Of Living Area
Sold From 1/1/2012 through 9/16/2013
Price Per Square Foot # of Sales % of Total
$0-$250 2 0.9%
$250-$500 81 35.1%
$500-$750 77 33.3%
$750-$1000 36 15.6%
$1000-$1250 14 6.1%
$1250-$1500 7 3.0%
$1500-$1750 4 1.7%
$1750-$2000 2 0.9%
$2000-$2250 2 0.9%
$2250-$2500 2 0.9%
$2500-$2750 1 0.4%
$2750-$3000 1 0.4%
$3000-$3250 0 0.0%
$3250-$3500 0 0.0%
$3500-$3750 1 0.4%
$3750-$4000 1 0.4%
Total 231 100.0%

More than 90 percent of Maui’s million dollar home sales in the study period fall in the “price per square foot” range of $250 to $1,250, with the $250 to $1,000 range accounting for 84 percent of the transactions.

Maui real estate agents that are active in the luxury sector report that the high-end/luxury market typically begins at the $1,000 per square foot level.  The sub-$1,000 data shows how raw demand for Maui residences generates a great number of high dollar ($1.0 M plus) sales for “less-than-luxury” homes.

The two sales that cleared the $3,000 per square foot level did so for different reasons: one was a prime white sand beach home on South Kihei Road that sold for $23.0 million.  The other was an older/smaller cottage on an amazing 1.1 acre oceanfront lot near Paia–the high price per square foot of living area was due to the largely insignificant improvements on a very valuable piece of land.

Bottom Line: At least on Maui, a million bucks doesn’t go as far as it used to.

At these prices, it is easy to see how a Maui real estate appraiser could be regularly confronted with homes that sell for prices that easily exceed Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and FHA conforming loan limits.

Questions or comments?  Please leave them in the comment  box below, I would be happy to clarify and/or expand.

Aloha, Chris

Maui Million Dollar Home Sales ($1.0M+) – Day 3 of 10 – “How Big Are They?”

From January 1, 2012 through September 16, 2013, a total of 231 “million dollar plus” homes sold in Maui County, generating total volume in excess of $525 million.

There are many ways that Hawaii real estate appraisers analyze sales statistics for luxury homes.  Because a proper market study for this segment would run many pages, I am posting one article per day for ten days.

Day 3 of 10 – Maui Million Dollar ($1.0M+) Single Family Homes By Living Area

Consider the following graph and chart:

Maui Million Dollar Sales By Living Area

Maui Million Dollar Sales By Living Area

Maui Million Dollar Single Family Homes By Living Area
Sold From 1/1/2012 through 9/16/2013
Living Area in SF # of Sales % of Total
0-999 5 2.2%
1000-1999 32 13.9%
2000-2999 68 29.4%
3000-3999 75 32.5%
4000-4999 28 12.1%
5000-5999 17 7.4%
6000-6999 2 0.9%
7000-7999 2 0.9%
8000-8999 1 0.4%
9000-10000 1 0.4%
Total 231 100.0%

Luxury homes having between 2,000 and 4,000 square feet of living area represent the “sweet spot” of the Maui luxury market, comprising more than 60 percent of the Valley Isle’s million dollar home sales since the beginning of 2012.

Bottom Line: Bigger Isn’t Necessarily Better

97.4 percent of all “million dollar plus” single family homes sold on Maui since 2012 have 6,000 square feet of living area or less.  While it is certainly possible to build larger residences, and some very wealthy individuals have, if you’re building much larger than 5,000 square feet, you might be going beyond what the market prefers.

Questions or comments?  Please leave them in the comment  box below, I would be happy to clarify and/or expand.

Aloha, Chris

Bonus  – Superadequacy

The data above suggests that building much larger than 5,000 square feet may not be consistent with market preferences.  If true, real estate appraisers refer to this phenomena as a “superadequacy”, which is defined below:

superadequacy

An excess in the capacity or quality of a structure or structural component; determined by market standards.

Source: Appraisal Institute, The Dictionary of Real Estate Appraisal, 5th ed. (Chicago: Appraisal Institute, 2010

Land Value via the Income Approach – A Quick Primer

If you’re generally familiar with real estate appraisal, you are no doubt aware that the sales comparison approach is the preferred method of valuing land in most situations.

That said, there are other techniques that can be developed: Market Extraction, Allocation, Land Residual, Ground Rent Capitalization, and Discounted Cash Flow Analysis.

The last three procedures in that list are income capitalization techniques–they are the focus of this article.

Ewa SubdivisionSubdivisions are often valued via the income approach.

Ground Rent Capitalization

Due to the large amount of leasehold land in Hawaii, local appraisers frequently employ this technique to convert ground lease rents into land values.

In appraisal school, one of the first formulas taught is: Income / Rate = Value ( I / R = V )

Here is an example of how it works:

IRV Land Example

As shown, a property’s annual income can be converted to a land value if a capitalization rate, or “rate of return” as it is commonly called in Hawaii, can be derived from the market.  In this example, if an eight percent (8.0%) rate of return was applied to a ground rent of $50,000 per year, the indicated land value would be $625,000.

Land Residual

Similar to the Ground Rent Capitalization technique described above, this method converts the allocated portion of a property’s income that is attributable to the land, and again divides it by a land capitalization rate that is market derived.  Most often, this method is employed when testing the feasibility of alternative uses in highest and best use analyses.

The key difference between this technique and the one above is that income for an improved property is typically the starting point, and it must be segmented (with market support) into the income attributable to land (IL) and income attributable to the building (IB).

The following chart is an example of the Land Residual technique used for Highest and Best Use testing purposes:

H&BU - Land Residual

(Note: In my experience in Hawaii, this method is used so infrequently for market value purposes that the term “Land Residual” is most often meant by appraisers to describe Yield Capitalization/DCF/Subdivision/Development Analyses–described below)

 Discounted Cash Flow Analysis / Subdivision Development Analysis

Yield Capitalization can also be used to value land, it is sometimes referred to as one of the following techniques:

  • Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
  • Subdivision Analysis
  • Development Analysis
  • Subdivision Development Analysis
  • Yield Capitalization
  • Land Residual (Hawaii)

In this technique, gross sale prices are estimated and costs (such as construction, management, or developer’s profit) are deducted to arrive at net income.  This net income is then discounted to a present value estimate for the underlying land.

An example of a Subdivision Development Analysis is shown below:

DCF Example - Subdivision

Comments and/or Questions?  Please leave them in the comments section below–I’d be happy to clarify or expand.

Aloha, Chris